Research

Title: "Consumer Sentiments and Spending Intentions: Evidence from Florida." (with Hector H. Sandoval)

Abstract: Consumer sentiment is considered an important leading indicators of changes in household spending. However, the overall empirical evidence of the causal relationship between sentiment and consumption is mixed and scarce. We address these knowledge gaps by employing data from the monthly Florida consumer sentiment survey, which captures party affiliation, consumer sentiment, and spending intentions at the individual level since 1991. We employ political partisanship around elections where the governing party changed as an instrument for sentiment. Our results show that party affiliation is a strong instrument that has a positive and statistically significant effect on sentiment. Moreover, we find a statistically significant relationship between sentiment and spending intentions. This effect is sizable and robust across the presidential election in our sample as well as to a variety of robustness checks.

Click here to view/download the most recent version [November 2021 PDF].

1. Sandoval, Hector H., and Anita N. Walsh. (2021) "The Role of Consumer Confidence in Forecasting Consumption, Evidence from Florida." Southern Economic Journal, 88:2, 757-788.

2. Blair, Roger D., and Anita N. Walsh. (2020) "Method-of-Use patents, Appropriability, and Antitrust Policy." Review of Industrial Organization, 56:4, 1-16.

1. Blair, Roger D., and Anita N. Walsh. (2019) "Antitrust Damages, Fines, and Deterrence: Collusion in the Nurse Labor Market." CPI Antitrust Chronicle, June 2019.

2. Sandoval, Hector H., and Anita N. Walsh. (2018) "An Update to the Net Impact of Retirees on Florida's State and Local Budgets." Bureau of Economic and Business Research, Economic Analysis Program - University of Florida.

3. Girson, Mark, Hector H. Sandoval, and Anita N. Walsh. (2016) "Florida Assisted Living Facilities Cost of Providing Care." Bureau of Economic and Business Research, Economic Analysis Program - University of Florida.

4. Rowe, Steven, Hector H. Sandoval, and Anita N. Walsh. (2016) "Polk County Healthcare Study: An Economic Analysis of Polk County's Indigent Health Care Tax and Safety Net Program." Bureau of Economic and Business Research, Economic Analysis Program - University of Florida.

1. "Consumer Sentiments and Spending Intentions: Evidence from Florida." (with Hector H. Sandoval)

2. "Multiplant Firms and Uncertainty."

3. "The Impact of Horizontal Mergers on Product Quality."